The political rivalry between President William Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is becoming one of the defining contests ahead of the 2027 General Election. The question now is whether Gachagua is increasingly concerned about Ruto’s ability to rebuild his political support.
There is no direct evidence that Gachagua is “worried” about Ruto’s popularity. But his increasingly aggressive political messaging suggests that he is taking the President’s political comeback seriously.
Ruto still has a powerful political machine, the presidency and a nationwide party structure behind him. Recent polling has also shown that UDA remains a significant political force, even as support for established parties has become more fluid.
Gachagua, on the other hand, is building his own political vehicle through the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP). The party has recorded significant growth in some opinion surveys, rising to 16 per cent in one TIFA poll in May 2026.
That growth gives Gachagua reason to remain confident. But it also explains why Ruto’s resurgence could be a concern.
For Gachagua, the biggest political prize is not simply defeating Ruto in one constituency or winning support among his traditional base. It is convincing enough Kenyans that the opposition can offer a credible alternative to the current administration.
That is a much harder task.
Ruto has the advantage of incumbency. He can point to government programmes, infrastructure projects and policy initiatives while travelling across the country. His administration also continues to strengthen its political structures, including efforts to consolidate support in key regions.
Gachagua therefore needs more than criticism of Ruto. He needs a compelling national message.
His recent political strategy appears to recognise this. He has been working to position DCP within a broader opposition strategy, while his political activities have increasingly extended beyond his traditional Mount Kenya base. His recent US tour, for example, includes political and diaspora engagements as he builds his national network ahead of 2027.
The Ol Kalou by-election also gave Gachagua's camp an important psychological boost after DCP defeated UDA in the contest. But one by-election cannot determine a presidential election.
This is where Ruto may still have the advantage.
A presidential race is about building a coalition capable of winning across Kenya, not simply dominating one region. Gachagua must therefore demonstrate that his political influence can travel beyond Mount Kenya and attract voters from different communities.
At the same time, Ruto cannot afford to underestimate Gachagua.
If Gachagua succeeds in consolidating his support in Mount Kenya while helping unite other opposition forces, he could significantly complicate Ruto’s path to re-election.
That makes the current rivalry less about who is personally “worried” and more about who understands the changing political mood in Kenya.
Ruto needs to convince Kenyans that his administration deserves another term. Gachagua needs to convince them that the country needs a different direction.
The coming months will reveal which of the two narratives gains more traction.
For now, it would be premature to conclude that Gachagua is afraid of Ruto’s popularity. What is clearer is that both men are taking the 2027 contest seriously, and neither can afford to ignore the other.
The real battle may not be about who is more popular today, but who can build the broadest and most convincing coalition before Kenyans go to the ballot.