By all appearances, the United Democratic Alliance is bleeding.
MPs and other political leaders are walking away, especially in regions that overwhelmingly backed President William Ruto and UDA in the 2022 General Election. The growing rebellion has created the impression of a party in crisis and raised questions about whether Ruto's political vehicle can survive until 2027.
Yet, despite the defections, UDA remains one of the strongest political parties in Kenya.
The reason is simple: political strength is not measured only by the number of leaders leaving a party. It is measured by structures, resources, alliances, leadership and, ultimately, the ability to mobilise voters.
UDA still has what many of its rivals lack—a sitting President as its party leader, a nationwide network built during and after the 2022 elections, elected leaders across the country and the advantage of being at the centre of government.
More importantly, the politicians leaving UDA may be making a dangerous assumption: that their personal popularity automatically translates into control of voters.
Kenyan politics has repeatedly shown that voters can abandon politicians just as quickly as politicians abandon parties. An MP may defect with confidence, but elections are won at the ballot box, not in press conferences announcing defections.
The bigger challenge for UDA is not necessarily the departure of individual MPs. It is whether the party can retain the ordinary voter who believed in the Kenya Kwanza promise.
If Ruto manages to convince voters that his government has delivered on jobs, infrastructure, agriculture and the cost of living, many of the defections may eventually become political footnotes. But if voters conclude that their economic situation has not improved, then even the strongest party machinery may not save UDA.
The exodus should therefore not be dismissed. It is a warning.
The departure of leaders, particularly from Mt Kenya, exposes growing dissatisfaction and creates space for rivals such as Rigathi Gachagua and other opposition forces to organise. But it would be premature to declare UDA dead simply because some MPs have chosen to leave.
In fact, the defections could present Ruto with an unexpected opportunity to rebuild the party ahead of 2027, replacing politicians whose loyalty is uncertain with new leaders willing to carry the party's message to the grassroots.
The real test will come when nominations are held and, eventually, when Kenyans vote.
Until then, UDA remains a paradox: a party losing some of its leaders but still retaining the machinery, reach and political weight to remain a formidable force in the 2027 contest.
The MPs may be leaving, but the bigger question remains unanswered: are the voters leaving too?